This particular bank is on a multi-year breakout. A daily close above current levels(514) will reiterate the breakout.
Disclosure: I do not hold any position in this stock but intend to load up once the stock closes above 514.
As can be seen from the weekly chart of INR, the currency has closed under the 200 period moving average after a period of consolidation. In Aug 2008, when INR went through a similar consolidation and closed above the 200 MA level, we saw a brisk 10% move (weakening of INR) in the next 2 months. Today, the picture is almost like an inverse mirror image (see circled region). Will the Rupee see a brisk move this time in the other direction (strengthening)?
Data and Chart courtesy: Bloomberg.
Im on a short holiday to Lake district. Will be back with market updates on Thursday.
The Indian currency is stronger that it was in January and had finished last week at its best level since September 2008. The tide is strong and is a precursor to clearing the highs of 5300 on the Nifty.
For those who have bloomberg access here is the link to my note of October 09 { NSN KR6WCM07SXKX <GO>} - I had anticipated the Indian rupee to strengthen 12%.
The Dow Theory "buy signal" that was in effect from last July, got another reconfirmation today with the Dow Industrials closing above its January high of 10725. With this, all the three Major US Indices(Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) are clocking higher highs and higher lows thereby implying that the primary up trend that began in March 2009 remains in good health.
While markets might pull-back in the near term, today's move has further increased the odds of Dow Jones Industrial Average scaling 11200. ( I have been holding this view since last July - see my Bloomberg report dated July 24th)
Though Nifty is on its sixth week of back-to-back gains, the benchmark is still marginally down on YTD basis if measured in local currency. The benchmark is up 2.35% if we take the base currency as USD or 4.35% if we take the base currency as Swiss Franc.
Interestingly, China is the worst performing index and Colombo's All Share Index is the best performing index in the Asian region.