Nifty(5018): Nifty continued to rally and closed above 5000. Round numbers are not resistances but they help in pushing sentiment to the extremes.
Let's quickly do a check on the positives and negatives.
Whats favouring the bearish case?
1) Our proprietary which has a stellar record since 1997 says the bear market is not over.
2) The rise still looks corrective rise - a three not a five in Elliot wave terms
3) Sentiment on Nifty and INR are getting very one-sided and excessively bullish ( I'm hearing calls for 5600 Nifty and 2008 highs for for ADAG)
4) IT stocks may have rolled over the bearish side
What's favouring the bulls?
1) The breadth so far has been encouraging.
2) Markets have been penetrating through big resistances
3) Reliance trying to offset the negatives through a buy back
So here we are with Nifty making a dash at the December highs. It is very likely that if market is going to reverse it is going to do it either today with a pop at open or on Monday.
Nifty Resistance : 5065-5075 Support 4960. Watch for the first 15mins, note the highs and lows at 9:30IST. If market drops below the low, high chances that markets have seen an exhaustion. Try a VERY SMALL short with stop at above 5100 or the high of the first mins IF AND ONLY if Nifty drops below the low you have noted.
9 Responses to “Technicals 20th Jan”
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Keeps climbing. No let up. The overall breadth of the market is strong. Jai – do you see a short covering rally on the cards?
Dear Vivek,
Short covering has been at 4850-4960, thats what brought mkt this far.
hmm.. I did not see the strong rally that I have seen in the past during short covering phase. Typically in the past mid caps rose during short covering phase, however this time mid caps rose pretty much between 4550 and 4700 and then literally stopped rising. However, I agree most of the large caps rose during 4700 to now .. interesting times ahead.. 😉
IS IT TIME TO GO SHORT ON HEROMOTO OR WAIT TO SEE IF NIFTY CROSSES 5100
Hi Jai,
Do you see a short again on hero moto at current level? if yes what stop should one keep?
Parag/Gunjan,
The safest time to short Hero is after a reversal. It should not cross 1977. I would short when it breaks 1898 not b4. But if u want cannot wait, give it a try closer to 1970 with stop abv 2017 (not favoured)
WHOA HEROMOTO SHOT UP NICE TIMELY ADVICE (NOT FAVOURABLE)
Jai – Any view on bajaj-auto? It shot up nicely after the results. I dont think it is a short candidate anymore, but wanted to get your view?
Thanks,
Vivek
Yes you are right the descent to 1168 is likely to get delayed. Not ideal now but 1168 will come later.